Space: Who Knew, #16

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The Drake Equation

This equation was created by Frank Drake back in 1960. It attempts to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations that might exist in our Milky Way galaxy.

Here is the Wiki article: Drake Equation

The equation states that the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (N), is equal to:

• the average rate of star formation in our galaxy X
• the fraction of those stars that have planets X
• the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets X
• the fraction of the above planets that actually do go on to support life X
• the fraction of the above planets that go on to develop intelligent life X
• the fraction of those civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signals into space X
• the length of time those civilizations release signals into space

Of course, this equation really is more of a guess and its variables are pretty tough to quantify. Because of this, the equation is subject to increase scrutiny. Obviously it is meant as a benchmark to better define the variables that might be needed to harbor intelligent life as we might know it. And as such, I find it extremely intriguing.

When he first proposed this equation, he suggested the following numbers for the variables:

N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 10

So he suggested in 1960 that the estimated number of civilizations that currently exist in the Milky Way galaxy to be 10. Current estimates in this equation have been proposed as such:

N = 7 × 0.5 × 2 × 0.33 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 2.31

Pretty interesting, and for me at least, this number seems to be really low... But then, I'm no scientist.

Who knew???