A New Drake Equation?

Interesting topic:
http://www.universetoday.com/2009/05/13/a-new-drake-equation-other-life-not-likely-to-be-intelligent/

Seems that intelligent life as we know it may not be so common afterall. Though the Drake Equation was extremely variable in nature to begin with. I think it unlikely however that our civilization is the first of its kind in our cluster of galaxies. That seems a little too naive to claim imo. Also, looks like Juan Enriquez was one of the speakers, he's given a couple of good TED talks...